30.11.16

Gold price edges higher, investor focus turns to FOMC minutes

Gold was in positive territory on the morning of Tuesday November 22 in rangebound trading in London while investors await the minutes of the previous US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) tomorrow.

The spot gold price was recently quoted at $1,218.45/1,218.85 per oz, up $3 on Monday's close. Trade has ranged from $1,213.75 to $1,221.05 so far.

"Gold kept its head above water, with technical-based buying supporting the market. However, with the market increasing bets on a December rate hike in the US, this buying is unlikely to persist in the short term," ANZ said.

Investors will scrutinise the minutes from the previous FOMC meeting for hints on when and how quickly the Fed will raise interest rates. Market participants currently see a 95.4% chance of a rate increase in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"With investors' dual focus on the buoyant equities markets and this Wednesday's FOMC minutes, gold and the rest of the precious metals have fallen out of favour. Consolidation... is likely to be the main driver leading into the FOMC minutes," Commerzbank said.

In currencies, the dollar index has eased since peaking at 101.49 last Friday, its highest since April 2003. It was recently at 100.70, down 0.12% on the previous close.

In the other precious metals, the spot silver price was up 20 cents at $16.860/16.880 per oz. Platinum climbed $12 to $944/954 per oz and palladium at $737/743 per oz was $15 higher.

The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts global platinum demand in 2016 to fall 3% year-on-year to 8,040,000 oz. It sees total platinum supply at a marginally lower 7,870,000 oz year-on-year, it said in its quarterly report today.

Total platinum supply in 2017 is seen dropping by 2% to 7,745,000 oz while mining supply will be flat year-on-year in 6,000,000 oz. Platinum recycling will decline to 1,745,000 oz, down 6% year-on-year, the WPIC predicted.

It forecasts total platinum demand in 2017 to fall 2% year-on-year to 7,845,000 oz, with projected growth in jewellery demand unable to offset expected declines in automotive, industrial and investment demand, the WPIC added.